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OPTIONS BEAT-Investors eye strategies for New Year
Fri Nov 26, 2004 11:55 AM ET
CHICAGO, Nov 26 (Reuters) - This holiday season, investors may
find some bargains in options as they take advantage of the
stock market's long stretch of slumbering volatility.
As market activity tends to slow down between now and the New
Year, some analysts are recommending investors use this period
to buy cheap options to protect their stock market gains against
a pullback or to position themselves for rallies by year's end.
"Over the past three years, stocks have mirrored the
'post-Turkey Day nap,' entering a period of low volatility
between Thanksgiving and New Year's," wrote Goldman Sachs option
strategists Maria Grant and Jason Cuttler.
"Like every year, there are plenty of catalysts on the
calendar, but many investors take time off making the lines at
Toys R Us louder than trading floors," they said in a recent
weekly research report.
The recent stock market rally has lowered the risk
expectatons in the options market, and as a result many options
premiums have fallen. This can create a window of opportunity
should investors feel that volatility is going to start to rise,
analysts said.
The Chicago Board Options Exchange volatility index or VIX
has dipped below 13 and is once again approaching nine-year
lows. This barometer of investor fear reflects near-term
expectations of limited price movement in stock prices.
But five weeks stand between now and Dec. 31, and unstable
oil prices, the wobbly dollar, the prospect of higher interest
rates and political instability could be the catalysts to move
the market and drive up premiums of longer-term options.
"For that reason, the VIX is unlikely to fall dramatically
from these levels and investors should prepare for the
possibility of greater volatility in 2005," said Frederic Ruffy,
an analyst at Optionetics, a provider of investment education
and analysis services.
Goldman Sachs strategists noted options premiums on
exchange-traded funds in the technology sector remain at low
levels and could be bought to accomplish diversification in
either a broad-based or sector index.
For example, buying options on the popular Nasdaq 100
Tracking Stock (QQQ.N:
Quote,
Profile,
Research) , an ETF that tracks 100 non-financial stocks, may
make sense because of its low implied volatility -- the
anticipated volatility of the index as suggested by its options
prices, the firm said.
"With QQQ implied volatility low across several metrics, we
believe buying index puts to hedge recent gains makes sense.
Alternatively, buying calls offers a low-capital-at-risk way to
maintain or increase exposure to the sector," Cuttler and Grant
wrote.
For stocks which have run up dramatically this year, buying
protective puts -- which give the right to sell the stock at a
preset price in the future -- can serve as a hedge, said Scott
Sheridan, co-founder of thinkorswim, an online options firm.
Take the technology stocks ebay Inc. (EBAY.O:
Quote,
Profile,
Research) and Google Inc. (GOOG.O:
Quote,
Profile,
Research) . "If someone wants to hold onto ebay stock, they
may consider buying a put that expires in January 2005 to limit
their downside exposure," Sheridan said.
For Google stockholders who don't expect big moves in the
stock this year, this could be an opportunity for options
sellers.
Sheridan suggests selling December at-the-money calls for an
investor who wants protection for a long stock holding.
A call buyer has the right to purchase the stock at a
predetermined price within a set period of time. It is
at-the-money when the stock and strike price are the same.
Google at-the-money 175 calls which expire in December were
trading early on Friday at $9.10.
"If you are long Google, you can sell the December at-the-
money call and cash in on the premium, protecting your
investment by about 5 percent to the downside," Sheridan said.
"On the other hand, if the stock stays unchanged and the
Google option expires worthless, you will have increased your
return by 5 percent in 21 days. If the stock rallies in the next
few weeks, you will be limited to a 5 percent return. Your limit
is the price of the option plus the stock price."
© Reuters 2004. All Rights Reserved.
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