| This article appeared
in the November issue of MONEY Magazine; prices and yield data
have been updated as of November 5.
NEW YORK (MONEY Magazine) -- Good old dividends.
In the giddiness of the market bubble of the late 1990s,
it was easy to forget that the lowly dividend accounted for half
of stocks' investment return over the past 100 years. As the
century rammed to a close, the number of companies paying
dividends fell by two-thirds to 21 percent, down from 66 percent
in 1978.
Now that accounting scandals and executive shenanigans have
made investors distrust financial statements and promises of
unfettered earnings growth, dividends have regained their
appeal. For one thing, they serve as direct evidence of a
company's financial strength. And for another, the prospect of
ready cash can help support stock prices in tough markets.
Morgan Stanley market strategist Steve Galbraith believes
that the appeal of cold, hard cash "will continue to drive stock
performance for some time."
Back in style
Now many believe that we're in the early stages of a dividend
renaissance. The number of companies that have boosted their
dividend since July is up more than 30 percent year-over-year,
and some companies are instituting dividends for the first time.
In May, for example, FedEx announced that it would start paying
dividends; FedEx CEO Fred Smith called the new policy a sign of
"the board's confidence in the company's future growth and
financial prospects."
|
* As of 11/5 |
|
Source: Baseline |
|
So how should investors incorporate dividends into a
portfolio? Traditionally, yield-hungry investors turned to
utilities, many of which no longer offer the sizable, secure
dividends they once did, and to real estate investment trusts (REITs).
We think that investors need to take a broader approach, looking
for stocks that combine a safe dividend with the potential for
growth.
With that in mind, here's what you need to know about
choosing exceptional dividend-paying stocks.
Higher is not always better. Falling share prices have
pushed yields to new highs (since yield is the dividend per
share divided by share price). Of the companies in the S&P 500
that pay a dividend, 71 percent have yields above their
five-year average. But a double-digit yield like the 14 percent
that WorldCom tracking stock MCI Group sported in 2001 can point
to serious business problems on the horizon. Eventually,
WorldCom eliminated the tracking stock, a move that allowed it
to avoid paying $284 million in dividends.
Look beyond a stock's yield to the payout ratio. The
payout ratio (dividend per share divided by earnings per share)
tells you how much of a company's profits go to pay the
dividend. Money managers prefer to see the ratio stay under 50
percent for two reasons. First, even dividend payers need to be
able to reinvest in their businesses; a high payout ratio could
indicate that the company is starving its operations to maintain
the dividend.
And second, those companies may eventually have to cut, or at
least stop increasing, their dividends. John Snyder, manager of
John Hancock Sovereign fund, believes that J.P. Morgan Chase
and Bristol-Myers Squibb, where earnings troubles have pushed
dividend payout ratios above 65 percent, may fall into that
category.
A recent study of dividend-paying stocks in the S&P 500 by
Credit Suisse First Boston analysts bears out the benefits of
the low payout ratio. For the 12-year period that ended in June
of this year, the study found that stocks that combined high
yields with low payout ratios performed better than those with
high yields and high payout ratios.
Seek steady dividend growth. To boost the dividend,
the company must first increase earnings. "Companies with rising
dividends tend to have more consistent earnings and also very
good balance sheets and cash flow," says John Hancock's Snyder,
whose fund has 80 percent of its assets in steady
dividend-boosters.
Taylor's Franklin Rising Dividends looks for companies that
will double the dividend every 10 years, which translates to an
annual increase of roughly 8 percent compounded.
Solid dividend plays
Arthur J. Gallagher Taking these tips to heart, we
searched the market's dividend-paying stocks, looking for a long
record of dividend increases, low payout ratios and healthy
cash-flow growth. One of the names that showed up is commercial
insurance broker Arthur J. Gallagher. The stock plummeted in
July after its second-quarter earnings disappointed investors.
But Don Taylor, manager of the Franklin Rising Dividends
fund, says the shortfall resulted largely from higher expenses
as a result of the hiring of a lot of new agents, which should
lead to stronger growth in the coming quarters. Sales at the $2
billion (market capitalization) company still grew 22 percent
for the first six months of the year, while earnings rose 36
percent.
At around $27, shares trade at 14.2 times next year's
estimated earnings, and the stock yields 2.2 percent. The
company, which has a payout ratio of 38 percent, has raised its
dividend by 68 percent over the past five years.
Washington Mutual Another fallen stock that looks like
a solid bet is Washington Mutual. When MONEY last recommended
this bank stock back in September, it had sunk to new lows, in
part because of fears that a rash of mortgage refinancings would
cut into Washington Mutual's earnings. It now trades for about
$36, with a 3.1 percent yield.
Taylor thinks that the fears about the impact this latest
round of mortgage refinancings will have on WaMu are overblown.
"People should be thinking how good the loan servicing business
will look after this cycle is over," he says. "If interest rates
move back to where they were as recently as March, it may be a
long, long time before the bank has to deal with a huge surge of
refinancings again."
Bank of New York is another blue-chip bank that offers
a better-than-average yield. Its stock tumbled after the company
warned recently that bad loans would eat into third-quarter
earnings, pushing its yield up to 2.8 percent. But the company's
management is well known for its tight control over its loan
portfolio, and John Hancock's Snyder thinks that the current
problems are short-term.
Abbott Laboratories A dividend payer that Snyder
favors is drugmaker Abbott Laboratories, whose stock has been
hurt by a federal inquiry into one of its manufacturing plants.
Snyder believes that the company is sound; its sales and
cash-flow growth have remained healthy, and it has a promising
new rheumatoid arthritis drug in the pipeline. Best part: its
2.2 percent yield is well above its five-year average, and it
has hiked its dividend 56 percent in the past five years.
Citigroup Geraldine Weiss, who runs Investment
Quality Trends, a newsletter devoted to dividend-paying
stocks, points to Citigroup as a good dividend play today. Weiss
starts her research by screening a database of the historic
yields of some 400 stocks to determine whether they are
overvalued or undervalued. As long as other fundamental research
on a company checks out, says Weiss, "if you buy stocks at the
high end of their yield profile and have the patience to wait,
you'll have a very successful investment."
If you prefer to invest using mutual funds, several strong
choices make dividend investing part of their strategy. No-load
MFS Value holds at least 65 percent of assets in dividend
payers. This eye for income led managers Lisa Nurme and Steven
Gorham to load up on stocks like Bank of America (yield: 3.7
percent) and Citigroup. Over the past three years, the fund has
broken even, ranking it second among all large-cap value funds,
according to Morningstar.
Another good choice: Taylor's
Franklin Rising Dividends, whose three-year annualized
return of 5.4 percent ranks it 14th among its peers. Along with
Arthur J. Gallagher, the fund owns Alberto Culver and Family
Dollar Stores. Since spring, Taylor's been adding to his GE
stake; its 35 percent dive this year has sent its yield to 2.7
percent.
|