The Black and Scholes Option Pricing Model didn't appear
overnight, in fact, Fisher Black started out working to create a valuation
model for stock warrants. This work involved calculating a derivative to
measure how the discount rate of a warrant varies with time and stock price.
The result of this calculation held a striking resemblance to a well-known
heat transfer equation. Soon after this discovery, Myron Scholes joined
Black and the result of their work is a startlingly accurate option pricing
model. Black and Scholes can't take all credit for their work, in fact their
model is actually an improved version of a previous model developed by A.
James Boness in his Ph.D. dissertation at the University of Chicago. Black
and Scholes' improvements on the Boness model come in the form of a proof
that the risk-free interest rate is the correct discount factor, and with
the absence of assumptions regarding investor's risk preferences.
![[Black and Scholes Model]](images/model.gif)
In order to understand the model itself, we divide it into two parts. The
first part, SN(d1), derives the expected benefit from acquiring a stock
outright. This is found by multiplying stock price [S] by the change in the
call premium with respect to a change in the underlying stock price [N(d1)].
The second part of the model, Ke(-rt)N(d2), gives the present value of
paying the exercise price on the expiration day. The fair market value of
the call option is then calculated by taking the difference between these
two parts.
Assumptions of the Black and Scholes Model:
1) The stock pays no dividends during the option's life:
Most companies pay dividends to their share holders, so this might seem a
serious limitation to the model considering the observation that higher
dividend yields elicit lower call premiums. A common way of adjusting the
model for this situation is to subtract the discounted value of a future
dividend from the stock price.
2) European exercise terms are used:
European exercise terms dictate that the option can only be exercised on
the expiration date. American exercise term allow the option to be exercised
at any time during the life of the option, making american options more
valuable due to their greater flexibility. This limitation is not a major
concern because very few calls are ever exercised before the last few days
of their life. This is true because when you exercise a call early, you
forfeit the remaining time value on the call and collect the intrinsic
value. Towards the end of the life of a call, the remaining time value is
very small, but the intrinsic value is the same.
3) Markets are efficient: This assumption suggests that people cannot consistently predict the
direction of the market or an individual stock. The market operates
continuously with share prices following a continuous Itô process. To
understand what a continuous Itô process is, you must first know that a
Markov process is "one where the observation in time period t depends only
on the preceding observation." An Itô process is simply a Markov process in
continuous time. If you were to draw a continuous process you would do so
without picking the pen up from the piece of paper.
4) No commissions are charged: Usually market participants do have to pay a commission to buy or sell
options. Even floor traders pay some kind of fee, but it is usually very
small. The fees that Individual investor's pay is more substantial and can
often distort the output of the model.
5) Interest rates remain constant and known:
The Black and Scholes model uses the risk-free rate to represent this
constant and known rate. In reality there is no such thing as the risk-free
rate, but the discount rate on U.S. Government Treasury Bills with 30 days
left until maturity is usually used to represent it. During periods of
rapidly changing interest rates, these 30 day rates are often subject to
change, thereby violating one of the assumptions of the model.
6) Returns are lognormally distributed:
This assumption suggests, returns on the underlying stock are normally
distributed, which is reasonable for most assets that offer options.
The Black and Scholes Model:
![[Delta]](images/delta.gif)
Delta is a measure of the sensitivity the calculated option value has to
small changes in the share price. Option prices and the share price of
the underlying asset (stock)_ do not change at exactly the same rate.
Delta is the measurement of how much one changes as a percentage of the
other. When an option trader has to sell, for example, 1000 calls, she
immediately protects herself by buying the stock in sufficient quantity to
cover her position in naked calls (an unlimited loss potential).
Option traders enter all of their trades into a sophisticated, had-held
computer designed specifically for the purpose of keeping track of their
portfolios. Traders ideally want "a delta-zero hedge."
Investopedia says this: Delta Hedging
------------------------------------------------------------
An options strategy that aims to reduce (hedge) the risk associated with
price movements in the underlying asset by offsetting long and short
positions. For example, a long call position may be delta hedged by shorting
the underlying stock. This strategy is based on the change in premium (price
of option) caused by a change in the price of the underlying security. The
change in premium for each basis-point change in price of the underlying is
the delta and the relationship between the two movements is the hedge ratio.
For example, the price of a call option with a hedge ratio of 40 will rise
40% (of the stock-price move) if the price of the underlying stock
decreases. Typically, options with high hedge ratios are usually more
profitable to buy rather than write since the greater the percentage
movement - relative to the underlying's price and the corresponding little
time-value erosion - the greater the leverage. The opposite is true for
options with a low hedge ratio.
Related Links:
------------------------------------------------------------
Article: Does Delta Neutral Trading Work?
http://www.investopedia.com/articles/trading/02/040202.asp
Article: Getting to Know the "Greeks"
http://www.investopedia.com/articles/optioninvestor/02/120602.asp
Related Terms:
------------------------------------------------------------
Delta
http://www.investopedia.com/terms/d/delta.asp
Delta Neutral
http://www.investopedia.com/terms/d/deltaneutral.asp
Hedge
http://www.investopedia.com/terms/h/hedge.asp
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Gamma:
![[Gamma]](images/gamma.gif)
Gamma is a measure of the calculated delta's sensitivity to small changes in
share price.
Theta:
![[Theta]](images/theta.gif)
Theta measures the calcualted option value's sensitivity to small changes in
time till maturity.
Vega:
![[Vega]](images/vega.gif)
Vega measures the calculated option value's sensitivity to small changes in
volatility.
Rho:
![[Rho]](images/rho.gif)
Graphs of the Black and Scholes Model:
This following graphs show the relationship between a call's premium and
the underlying stock's price.
The first graph identifies the Intrinsic Value, Speculative Value, Maximum
Value, and the Actual premium for a call.
![[Graph]](images/bsg1.gif)
The following 5 graphs show the impact of deminishing time remaining on a
call with:
S = $48
E = $50
r = 6%
sigma = 40%
Graph # 1, t = 3 months
Graph # 2, t = 2 months
Graph # 3, t = 1 month
Graph # 4, t = .5 months
Graph # 5, t = .25 months
Graph #1
![[Graph]](images/bsgt3.gif)
Graph #2
![[Graph]](images/bsgt2.gif)
Graph #3
![[Graph]](images/bsgt1.gif)
Graph #4
![[Graph]](images/bsgt_5.gif)
Graph #5
![[Graph]](images/bsgt_25.gif)
Graphs # 6 - 9, show the effects of a changing Sigma on
the relationship between Call premium and Security Price
S = $48
E = $50
r = 6%
sigma = 40%
Graph # 6, sigma = 80%
Graph # 7, sigma = 40%
Graph # 8, sigma = 20%
Graph # 9, sigma = 10%
Graph #6
![[Graph]](images/bsgs80.gif)
Graph #7
![[Graph]](images/bsgs40.gif)
Graph #8
![[Graph]](images/bsgs20.gif)
Graph #9
![[Graph]](images/bsgs10.gif)
After the Black and Scholes Model:
Since 1973, the original Black and Scholes Option Pricing Model has been
the subject of much attention. Many financial scholars have expanded upon
the original work. In 1973, Robert Merton relaxed the assumption of no
dividends. In 1976, Jonathan Ingerson went one step further and relaxed the
the assumption of no taxes or transaction costs. In 1976, Merton responded
by removing the restriction of constant interest rates. The results of all
of this attention, that originated in the autumn of 1969, are alarmingly
accurate valuation models for stock options. |